New Town, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

734
FXUS63 KBIS 061136
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
636 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds will continue to diminish this morning, becoming light
  and variable by the afternoon and evening hours.

- Low temperatures this morning may be near to slightly below
  freezing, especially across portions of the southwest and
  northwest.

- Highs today will generally be in the 60s, before we warm back
  into the mid 70s and 80s by Wednesday and Thursday. Relatively
  light winds and dry conditions can be expected through the
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Winds continue to decrease dramatically this morning. The main
change with this forecast update was dropping the wind speeds
down further in the James River Valley. The clouds in the James
River Valley have also since dissipated, so the cloud coverage
was adjusted accordingly. Temperatures this morning remain
mostly in the 30s, with a few reports of temperatures below 30
in Slope, Bowman, and Williams counties. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

The large, vertically stacked low that brought us our winds the past
48 hours continues to move east into Ontario, with surface high
pressure sliding into the western portions of the state this
morning. As a result, winds are forecast to continue decreasing
through the day today, with much of the area seeing light and
variable conditions by this afternoon and evening. At the moment,
some lingering gusty northwesterlies are present from the Turtle
Mountain area south through the James River Valley, with some
continued reports of wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. The Wind
Advisories that were previously in effect have been cancelled, as
winds have largely fallen below advisory criteria in these areas.
Otherwise, with the exception of some low stratus associated with
the low pressure system present across the north central and James
River Valley, conditions are generally clear. Lows this morning will
largely fall into the low to mid 30s, with some upper 20s possible
in the usual cold corridors in the southwest and northwest.

From today onward through the extended period, the forecast looks to
remain fairly consistent, with relatively dry conditions, warming
temperatures, and generally light winds expected. As the
aforementioned stacked low and associated trough continue to exit
the region, a rather wide and flat midlevel ridge over the western
CONUS is expected to build eastward over the next few days. As this
ridge builds in, a gradual warming trend will be expected, with very
low spreads in NBM temperatures through Thursday, suggesting very
high confidence in these warming temperatures. Highs today will
range from the lower 60s to upper 60s, before temperatures gradually
rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s by Thursday. The warmest
temperatures will generally be in the southwest and south central
during this time. Surface high pressure will move through the region
below this ridge, helping keep the wind speeds down and the cloud
coverage low. While minimum relative humidity values will be pretty
low, especially in the southwest (with values as low as 15-20%), the
reduced wind speeds will help reduce the risk for critical fire
weather. Overnight lows through the work week (with the exception of
this morning) will stay within the upper 30s and 40s. Additionally,
there is the potential for some near surface smoke later tonight in
our far southwest, with the most recent HRRR near surface smoke
model hinting at some smoke intrusion down there. At the moment,
confidence is too low to include anything in the grids just yet.

Long range guidance tentatively suggests a brief cooling trend this
weekend, with the midlevel ridge beginning to flatten while a trough
passes across it`s apex, staying well to the north of the
International Border. While the ridge will still influence North
Dakota, high temperatures may decrease into the low to mid 60s by
Saturday. A shortwave trough passing through the flow may also
provide enough energy for a brief shot of precipitation across the
area as well, however these chances are very low at the moment given
the low confidence in the exact position of this shortwave. NBM
temperature spreads increase during this time, though the general
trend of a decrease in highs through the weekend is present.
Afterwards, temperatures may warm back up as the ridge reestablishes
itself next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

VFR conditions are present across all terminals and will prevail
through the TAF period. Generally westerly winds continue to
decrease across the area, becoming light and variable late this
morning into the early afternoon hours. Clear skies will prevail
through the daytime hours, with some high clouds arriving late
in the evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Besson
DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Besson